All articles for the topic: uncertainty

Cover picture of FRACTAL briefing note on City government-research partnerships

City government-research partnerships

This briefing note provides reflections on city government-research partnerships, from Cape Town and Johannesburg.

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Climate narratives

This briefing note provides reflections on the climate risk narrative process: What have we tried? What have we learned? What does this mean for us going forward?

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Learning within & about climate science

This briefing note provides key discussion points on the role of learning in integrating climate science into decision making. 

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Climate Information Distillation

This briefing note presents a distillation framework: an attempt to re-think how we go about constructing information to inform decisions. 

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Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?​ This paper, delivered by the IMPRESSIONS project, investigates.

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How to understand and interpret global climate model results

Guide targeted at decision-makers to enable them to interpret the various plots, graphs and maps that are used to present global climate model projections.

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Long-term coastal adaptation in Australia

This article presents key findings from two recent studies that guide local governments towards flexible and robust coastal adaptation planning that addresses both social and physical impacts.

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FCFA - Uncertainty reduction in models for understanding development applications

The UMFULA project (meaning ‘river’ in Zulu) aims to support decision-making through providing new and more reliable information about climate processes and extremes in Central and Southern Africa.

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The Uncertainty Handbook

The Uncertainty Handbook provides guidance on 12 practical and easy-to apply principles for smarter communication about climate change uncertainties.

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Synthesis report: FCFA pilot phase

This report provides initial research into the use of long-term (5-40 year) climate information in Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia and the coastal cities of Accra, Ghana and Maputo, Mozambique.

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IMPRESSIONS

IMPRESSIONS aims to understand the consequences of high-end climate change and to evaluate how such knowledge can be used in effective and integrated adaptation and mitigation decision-making.

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Climate information for adaptation, risk reduction and resilience in Africa

This document explains why and how climate information is a valuable resource for rural communities and those working with them in confronting climate variability and change.

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Climate variability and vulnerability research

Climate research has focused on the impacts of higher mean temps. This review finds this has limited our understanding of how variability, such as heat waves will impact farming systems.

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Exploring the role of climate science in supporting long-term adaptation and decision-making in sub-Saharan Africa

Summary

Africa faces considerable challenges in adapting to the long-term impacts of climate change. Policy-makers not only have to contend with projected changes to the region’s climate,...

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New approaches to promoting flexible and forward looking decision making

Drawing on insights from complexity science, this paper describes what processes are needed to promote Flexible and Forward-looking Decision Making (FFDM).

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Deep uncertainty over long-term climate in infrastructure projects

This article discusses the innovations and techniques adopted in the Thames Estuary 2100 Project that enabled it to cope with deep uncertainty.

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Adaptation planning approaches

Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty

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MEDIATION Multi Criteria Analysis

This Policy Brief (Note 6) provides a summary of multi-criteria analysis, including a synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, how it considers uncertainty, and case study examples.

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MEDIATION Portfolio Analysis

This Policy Brief (Note 5) provides a summary of portfolio analysis, including a synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, how it considers uncertainty, and case study examples.

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MEDIATION Real Options Analysis

This briefing note considers the strengths and weakness of Real Options Analysis for climate change adaptation

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MEDIATION Robust Decision Making

This Policy Brief (Note 3) provides a summary of robust decision making, including a synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, how it considers uncertainty, and case study examples.

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Step-by-step guidance to using climate information

8-step guidance on using climate information. 

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CIP Climate Graph Development

This month marks the launch of the new Climate Information Platform (CIP). In many ways the new platform has been a clean sheet redesign of many aspects of the old portal.  One of the key...

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Mainstreaming Climate Change: Thailand Case Study

Thailand is one of the thirteen countries supported by AKP. This publication highlights the insights gained from the implementation of activities in Thailand in partnership with SEA START and Khon Kaen University.

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