All articles for the topic: managing uncertainty

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Alliance for Global Water Adaptation

Founded in 2010, the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) is an informal network for water resources adaptation to climate change, focused on supporting experts, decision makers, and institu

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Moving through uncertainty, toward Research for Impact

Accepting uncertainty must be part of our unfolding research practice. This CARIAA blog post addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty and how these can be overcome.

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Copyright: Impact Hub (https://www.flickr.com/photos/thehub/)

Robust Decision Support

The SEI practice of RDS is a participatory planning process based on a theoretical decision making under uncertainty framework referred to as Robust Decision Making (RDM). 

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Mainstreaming climate information into sector development plans

This report demonstrates the use of climate information in assessing adaptation needs and adaptation interventions. It also outlines changes in thinking as adaptation moves from theory to practice.

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MEDIATION Robust Decision Making

This Policy Brief (Note 3) provides a summary of robust decision making, including a synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, how it considers uncertainty, and case study examples.

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MEDIATION Method Overview

This review has covered a range of traditional and new decision support methods. It has analysed the strengths and weakness of these approaches and their relevance for adaptation.

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Module: Robust Decision Making

This MEDIATION training tool provides an introduction to Robust Decision Making, a decision support tool that is used in situations of deep uncertainty.

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Cover photo by Mette-Marie Nielsen

Participatory Monitoring, Evaluation, Reflection & Learning (PMERL)

The PMERL Manual can help measure, monitor and evaluate changes in local adaptive capacity within vulnerable communities for better decision-making on community-based adaptation.

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Mediation (Main Project Page)

This article provides an overview of the MEDIATION project and links to its outputs.

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Robust Decision-Making

Under deep uncertainty, decision-makers need to select robust rather than best options. However, when the future is characterised by uncertainty, a focus on best options may carry significant risks.

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XLRM Conceptual Diagram (Lempert et. al., 2003)

XLRM framework

RAND corporation has been developing a tool to carry out robust decision making as an example of computational multi-scenario simulation.

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Short course training: Robust decision making and uncertainty

A short course training module on robust decision making and uncertainty.

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