All articles for the topic: decision making under uncertainty

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Alliance for Global Water Adaptation

Founded in 2010, the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) is an informal network for water resources adaptation to climate change, focused on supporting experts, decision makers, and institu

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Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?​ This paper, delivered by the IMPRESSIONS project, investigates.

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Moving through uncertainty, toward Research for Impact

Accepting uncertainty must be part of our unfolding research practice. This CARIAA blog post addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty and how these can be overcome.

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Experimental Learning: Seasonal Forecast

This game helps participants to understand the possible uses and limitations of seasonal forecasts,their personal risk-taking preferences, and how seasonal forecasts can affect livelihood decisions.

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Climate data and projections: supporting evidence-based decision-making in the Caribbean

This report provides an overview of climate data and information available from the CARibbean Weather Impacts Group (CARIWIG) data portal and how they can be used to support decision-making.

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Courting complexity in climate services: Lessons from Participatory Scenario Planning

The Participatory Scenario Planning approach for seasonal decision-making at the local level has been adopted in 6 African countries and in SE Asia. This article discusses what makes it successful.

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Lund University

Lund University seeks to be a world-class university that works to understand, explain and improve our world and the human condition.

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James Creek Sustainability

James Creek Sustainability Services provides support to businesses and governments to address climate adaptation, reduce energy consumption and meet the needs of stakeholders.

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The Uncertainty Handbook

The Uncertainty Handbook provides guidance on 12 practical and easy-to apply principles for smarter communication about climate change uncertainties.

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Mung beans, cacao and climate: What do they have in common?

SEI Oxford and SEI Asia have been managing a Sida programme support project in South East Asia focused on strengthening climate adaptation planning for small island communities.

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Climaps

Climaps.eu is an online atlas providing data, visualizations and commentaries about the climate adaptation debate.

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Synthesis report: FCFA pilot phase

This report provides initial research into the use of long-term (5-40 year) climate information in Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia and the coastal cities of Accra, Ghana and Maputo, Mozambique.

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FCFA Pilot: Zambia Technical Report

This FCFA pilot study in Zambia sought to examine how to make climate science actionable, so decision-makers could make informed and robust adaptation and development investments.

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Climate information for adaptation, risk reduction and resilience in Africa

This document explains why and how climate information is a valuable resource for rural communities and those working with them in confronting climate variability and change.

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Cover photo: Thomas White, Kampala, Uganda

Planning for an uncertain future

This report describes ‘flexible and forward-looking decision making’ (FFDM), a decision making approach that is able to adapt to the unexpected.

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Adaptation planning approaches

Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty

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MEDIATION Robust Decision Making

This Policy Brief (Note 3) provides a summary of robust decision making, including a synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, how it considers uncertainty, and case study examples.

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MEDIATION Method Overview

This review has covered a range of traditional and new decision support methods. It has analysed the strengths and weakness of these approaches and their relevance for adaptation.

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Module: Robust Decision Making

This MEDIATION training tool provides an introduction to Robust Decision Making, a decision support tool that is used in situations of deep uncertainty.

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Adaptation Decision Making METHODS

This article aims to provide guidance on the best methods for decision screening, exploring many different decision making methods.

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Robust Decision-Making

Under deep uncertainty, decision-makers need to select robust rather than best options. However, when the future is characterised by uncertainty, a focus on best options may carry significant risks.

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Short course training: Robust decision making and uncertainty

A short course training module on robust decision making and uncertainty.

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Short course training: Climate Change, models and uncertainty

Short course training: Climate Change, models and uncertainty

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Elimination by aspects

While pilot knowledge elicitation tools (KnETs) attempt to classify important knowledge attributes of the domain, there may exist several (conscious and unconscious) phases of decision-making...

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