Methodology of Yemen NCAP Project

Submitted by Sukaina Bharwani | published 25th Mar 2011 | last updated 30th Mar 2011

Methodology

Sadah Basin, Sana'a Basin, and the urban/peri-urban area including and surrounding Aden City were selected as representative case study areas. The location of each site is shown on the map below. The rationale for the selection of these particular sites was that each represented a different ecological zone and development context. This offered an opportunity to examine and compare various dimensions of vulnerability to water scarcity, as well as to explore a plausible range of potential adaptation strategies. There were four key project activities in each case study area: extensive stakeholder consultations; data collection; integrated modeling of water demands and supply; and multicriteria assessment to prioritize adaptation options. Stakeholder consultations were undertaken using rapid rural appraisal techniques and focused on local perceptions of water scarcity, climatic factors, and development challenges. These structured stakeholder discussions were synthesized into a set of inputs for water resource modeling and prioritization of adaptation initiatives.


Case Study Locations

Moreover, a wide range of data from national and international sources was collected and synthesized for each case study site (subject to availability constraints). This included information on poverty and social indicators, water use and resources, surface runoff, surface and groundwater availability, groundwater depletion and management, crop production areas, soil cover, maps, and meteorological information. As with stakeholder discussions, the output of this effort was a synthesized body of knowledge that fed directly into water modeling activities and the assessment of adaptation options.

Water balance modeling was used to evaluate water demands and scarcity across all sectors for each of the case study sites. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, a user-friendly modeling platform that takes an integrated approach to water resources planning, was used to document and simulate current and future domestic and agricultural water use demands, climatic and hydrological parameters, and groundwater declines. The WEAP model served as the framework for the analysis of both a reference scenario (i.e. water supply and demand in the absence of adaptation strategies and under a climate sequence developed by repeating historical climate data), supply and demand conditions superimposed on two possible future climate sequences developed from downscaled global climate model data, and a set of Alternative Scenarios, all simulated through the year 2025. These latter scenarios represented potential water resource management strategies, identified through stakeholder consultations, which have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of communities to water scarcity.

Prioritization of adaptation initiatives was carried out within a stakeholder-driven multicriteria assessment (MCA) process. An MCA is a structured approach to determine overall preferences of various interest groups (e.g. farmers, politicians) among alternative options, where the options can accomplish several objectives. Because the Yemen NCAP project took place concurrently with its National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) project, the NCAP benefited from the capacity already developed for the MCA within the NAPA process. The output of this activity was a ranked set of potential adaptation options.

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