Methodology of Suriname NCAP Project

Submitted by Sukaina Bharwani | published 25th Mar 2011 | last updated 30th Mar 2011

In order to develop and formulate specific adaptation measures for Paramaribo and Wanica, the study started with a detailed description and updating of the present conditions in the study area in terms of geology, ecology, water resources, agriculture, socio-economics and human health. The description of this present profile helped in understanding the baseline vulnerabilities in the study area.

Taking the present profile as a starting point, scenarios were developed describing possible future conditions in the different sectors. The methodology used to describe the future profile was largely based on a detailed study of the available literature, intensive discussions and consultations with stakeholders and professionals, consultation of multi-annual plans of the Government, other policy documents and findings of workshops. Local site visits and discussions with the local communities and other relevant stakeholders living and working in the vulnerable area further helped in determining future projections of the different sectors. In terms of future climate conditions, the following data and information was used for the elaboration of the future profiles:

- Temperature increase of 2 to 3°C by the year 2100 based on the projections of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and Amatali 2007, Amatali 2008 and Noordam 2008.

- Changes in the precipitation pattern. Increased variability in rainfall and drought are projected for the future. The strong rainfall events in May and June of 2006 in the interior of the country, as well as the rainfall events in May 2007 in the capital Paramaribo are expected to become more frequent in the future. These changes may also lead to disruption of the hydrological cycle of the particular region or basin.

- A relative sea level rise of 1m is used for determining the future profile of the sectors. This value comprises the following parameters;

  • The sea level rise as projected by the IPCC (approximately 30 to 80cm in the coming 100 years);
  • Subsidence of 20 to 40cm, due to human activities in the coastal zone, e.g. empoldering of the low-lying coastal areas;
  • Storm surges of 20 to 30cm, fostered also by the change in the wind velocity and wind direction; and
  • Backwater effects and other anomalies of approximately 10cm.

In a final step, and based on the detailed descriptions of the present and future profiles, the study team developed and formulated a specific set of adaptation measures for Paramaribo and Wanica. Two types of adaptations measures were considered:

  1. Adaptation measures that are part of common government policy and actions; and
  2. Adaptation measures that constitute a specific response to the increased threat of climate related hazards (with a focus on accelerated sea level rise).

Various meetings and workshops were organized to present and discuss the proposed measures with stakeholders and policymakers. The meetings and workshops also provided an opportunity to further elaborate the adaptation measures and assess their feasibility and acceptance among different stakeholders. Feedback from the CCSC and others were made also useful in this process of elaboration adaptation measures.

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