Home › Learn › Articles › Do Projected Changes in Climate Vary from Region to Region?
Do Projected Changes in Climate Vary from Region to Region?
Submitted by Michael Rastall | published 7th Nov 2012 | last updated 16th Aug 2021
Please note that this material is from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The latest climate science can be found in the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, published in August 2021. For other reports and further updates, please refer to the IPCC website.
This material is extracted from the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) section of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group 1 (see full reference below).
Figure SPM.7 from the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2014): Change in average surface temperature (a) and change in average precipitation (b) based on multi-model mean projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) scenarios. Stippling (i.e., dots) shows regions where the projected change is large compared to natural internal variability, and where at least 90% of models agree on the sign of change. Hatching (i.e., diagonal lines) shows regions where the projected change is less than one standard deviation of the natural internal variability.
Climate varies from region to region. This variation is driven by the uneven distribution of solar heating, the individual responses of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface, the interactions between these, and the physical characteristics of the regions. The perturbations of the atmospheric constituents that lead to global changes affect certain aspects of these complex interactions. Some human-induced factors that affect climate (‘forcings’) are global in nature, while others differ from one region to another. For example, carbon dioxide, which causes warming, is distributed evenly around the globe, regardless of where the emissions originate, whereas sulphate aerosols (small particles) that offset some of the warming tend to be regional in their distribution. Furthermore, the response to forcings is partly governed by feedback processes that may operate in different regions from those in which the forcing is greatest. Thus, the projected changes in climate will also vary from region to region.
Reference
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment, Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Thumbnail image credit: Left - Mellimage/Shutterstock.com, center - Montree Hanlue/Shutterstock.com. Taken from http://climate.nasa.gov/effects/
This theme covers information and research for understanding and using climate data, communicating climate change and providing effective climate services.
Infrastructure Baseline Assessment Report for the Nile Basin Countries
This baseline comprises all available and desired Climate Service products for the water sector as well as an assessment of the state of the Climate Service infrastructure regarding the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services capacities and potential to generate useful and usable climate information products for water-related sectors.
This study is part of the CSI project and examines Climate Services in the German context. In particular, the Climate Service value chain is investigated and those stakeholders who play a decisive role as change agents in this area are highlighted.
The latest ZERO IN report from the CONSTRAIN project dives into the science set out in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. It investigates what our climate future could look like, depending on whether we take action in line with the Paris Agreement, or decide to follow current national policies and plans.
Mapping the Evolution and Current Trends in Climate Change Adaptation Science
This study provides a review of climate change adaptation science literature that spans from the first publication in 1978 to mid-2020. It identifies the underpinning foundations, leading authors, countries and organisations, as well as dominant research themes and priorities, and explores how these have changed over time.
Climate Models: What They Show Us and How They Can Be Used in Planning
Explore this guide from the Future Climate For Africa programme which provides a primer on global climate models (GCMs) and how to use them in planning.
Trending Discussions
From around the site...
Join us at CBA17: coming in May!
“Mark your calendars if you haven't already because the 17th International Conference on Community-Based Adaptation to...”
ECCA 2023: 6th European Climate Change Adaptation Conference
“When: June 19-21 2023 Where: Dublin, Ireland Europe’s influential climate adaptation conference, ECCA 2023, takes place...”
“Hello Noah, Welcome to this space! You raise crucial points of ensuring that the voices of the marginalised are heard...”