The question of whether climate change will happen has been replaced with even more sobering questions: how great will the change be, and how severe its impacts? The situation is grave, and yet these are ultimately anthropogenic problems, to which there exist and are emerging anthropogenic solutions. The challenge lies in their timely realization through processes such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and capacity strengthening opportunities such as the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP).
Likely climate change impacts during this time include significant shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns leading to greater humidity in some areas and aridity in others, high sea level rise in certain regions, and increases in the occurrence and severity of extreme events such as storms, drought and flooding. Adaptation to these adverse impacts of climate change has therefore become a priority.
In an ironic twist, the countries least responsible for climate change (the developing countries) are largely those most exposed to its impacts. The irony bites deeper still in that climate change is likely to have the greatest impact on the poorest people within those countries - those already exposed to an array of potential shocks and least able to recover in the aftermath.
Developing countries have a particular position within the international climate negotiations as parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Under the UNFCCC they are obliged to produce National Communications and an action plan for the implementation of the convention. The raison d'etre of the NCAP is the shortfall in many developing countries to implement these requirements. These countries often require external technical and/or financial assistance to reach a qualitatively good preparation, formulation, implementation and evaluation of national climate policy. NCAP has been created to address this problem by assisting a number of developing countries to become self-supporting in formulating climate policy.
The first phase of the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme (NCCSAP) began in 1996, and is an important example of Netherlands bilateral cooperation. During the first phase, NCCSAP supported a group of 13 non-Annex 1 countries to enhance their capacity to formulate and implement climate change national policies to fulfil their commitments to UNFCCC. NCCSAP assisted in preparing national reports, in comparing national situations in different contexts, and contributed to an overall learning process by all concerned parties, including The Netherlands.
The key thematic lesson from the first phase of the NCCSAP is that vulnerability and adaptation analysis cannot be driven solely by climate change modelling. Livelihood vulnerability must be given at least as much emphasis as biophysical vulnerability, not least because they are interdependent.
The second phase of the NCCSAP began in March 2003 (re-named NCAP in 2005), including eight countries involved in the first phase and six further countries: Bhutan, Bolivia, Colombia, Ghana, Yemen, Suriname, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mozambique, Tanzania, Vietnam. As in the first phase, the general aim of the second phase is to support these countries in their efforts to prepare, formulate, implement, and evaluate their policy in relation to climate change.
NCAP partners have collaborated effectively with the NCAP technical assistance team, have succeeded in institutionalizing innovative, policy relevant, climate adaptation study projects, have begun to raise awareness in-country beyond the usual circle of climate change experts, and have generated a growing body of useful and high quality written material to synthesize and share the country experiences. Specific objectives, approaches, methodologies and activities carried out under each project were developed by the country partners.
Here are some of the synthesis documents produced by the NCAP partners and technical assistance team. These documents highlight main findings of the country projects and emphasize lessons learned and strategic recommnedations.
As the synthesis reports for each NCAP country come out (see full pdf version in Table below) we will be adding country specific pages to the wiki, which will provide summaries of the methodologies, key findings and lessons learned in each country.
Pages on the different methodologies are collected in the NCAP Methodologies page, the key findings pages are collected together in a page on key findings and the lessons learned are also all available from this page on lessons learned. The different country pages are listed below:
The main findings and key lessons learned in the country projects under the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme will be synthesized in a book that will be published early next year 2009. The following are some of the ideas that will be discussed in the book:
In trying to build a series of studies that link adaptation to poverty alleviation and development, particularly through Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSPs), NCAP managed to drive the adaptation process forward reaching a point where issues of resilience in development processes began to arise. Interestingly enough, resilience success gives a positive feedback to questions of impacts and vulnerability, coming back to the initial starting point in climate adaptation.
From Vulnerability to Adaptation
Adaptation and Development
Development to Resilience
Thoughts for the Future |
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The shift from an impact science to vulnerability is one of adding the social perspective, but the move from vulnerability to adaptation and development in the NCAP studies, is one in which social perspectives are understood as dynamic actor-network processes in addition to traditional vulnerability analysis, often based on bio-geophysical indicators.This process will lead ultimately towards building resilience that requires a paradigm shift. Progressing in the adaptation continuum requires appropriate databases to build policy and stimulate institutional learning, as well as effective information management systems to raise awareness that will inform the shift to a new resilience paradigm. In this process it is fundamental to maintain an integrated approach that allows for scale of action complexity. Lastly, there is a need to measure progress in adaptation, both the process and the outcomes. This metric system needs to consider that baselines are poor and over simplified and need to account for the complex interplay between adaptation and development and the positive feedback process of resilience that reduces climate change impacts. The following questions will be explored in further NCAP steps:
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QUESTIONS TO REFLECT UPON
NCAP is also investigating the possible use of MDG style 'targets for adaptation', through research in Bolivia, Mongolia and Bangladesh. For more information on this initiative see the Adaptation Targets pages.
Project Website: