Key findings from Tanzania NCAP Project

• 1 Livelihoods
• 2 Adaptation in Kilimanjaro: Location of Study Site
• 3 Exogenous and Endogenous Pressures
• 4 Next. . .

Livelihoods

The majority of households in the study area are considered to be very poor and vulnerable with low access to livelihood assets. This is a major concern in terms of food security, poverty reduction and climate change adaptation as poor asset holdings is a major constraint on livelihood diversification and sustainability.

• Human Capital

Human capital according to DFID (1999) is the primary building block from which other livelihood assets are accessed. The potential for households to access resources is a function not only of the quantity of labor, but the also the quality of labor potential within households. The main factors influencing this include the ability to do work, skills, knowledge and good health. The findings below indicate that in Rufiji, education and health status play an overwhelming part in unlocking other livelihood assets, strongly determining resilience.

• Education

Survey data shows that household heads educated at primary level stands at 49.3% while 38.7 % have no education. Only a minority received secondary and further education. The large proportion of those with little or no education is a major issue as education is a vital factor in livelihood generation.

• Food Security

Food security is a barrier to education. The poorest are discouraged from sending their children to school because there are no daily meals provided. Parents are often unable to provide children with food and often cannot afford to lose labor by letting children attend. Children who go to school hungry cannot concentrate properly and so do not receive much benefit.

• Gender

Gender roles are also important determinants of vulnerability in Rufiji. A total of 16.3% of households surveyed were headed by unmarried, divorced and widowed women. Interview and daily calendar data indicate that the division of labor within households is such that women wake earlier and go to sleep later than their husbands as they must attend to domestic and cultivation chores. Men on the other hand spend less time in the field, have more time to socialize and focus on the marketing of crops and charcoal. Given women’s predisposition towards socially reproductive tasks, unmarried, divorced and widowed women can be considered particularly vulnerable as time constraints and social norms may act to exclude them from income generation activities usually practiced by men. In addition, female households also face exclusion from essential resources needed to generate a livelihood. The expulsion from her ex-husband’s land and home would seriously have compromised the sustainability of the Household B had it not been for the good fortunes brought about by her educational background. One interviewee told of her friend from school who was shamed after becoming pregnant while unmarried. She was disowned by her family and friends and ultimately forced to beg for money and food.

Adaptation in Kilimanjaro: Location of Study Site

Mount Kilimanjaro is a dormant volcano. The mountain has three summits, the Shira plateau in the west, with the Mawenzi and Kibo summits at Uhuru peak point, which, at 5 895 metres, makes it the highest mountain in Africa. The mountain is iconic and has become a popular tourist attraction. The easier route to the top is dubbed the “coca-cola” route due to its popularity. It is also iconic in the climate change debate figuring prominently in Al Gore’s film The Inconvenient Truth (2006).

The Kilimanjaro region is located in northeast Tanzania and covers an area of 13,209km², the smallest region in Tanzania. Despite this, it has a population of 2,097,166, giving a population density of 159 people/km² (NBS, 2002). The population density varies dramatically from 650 people/km² in the highland Chagga gardens to below 50 people/km² in the lowland plains. 75% of the population lives in the rural areas and agriculture accounts for 70% of GDP for the region (NBS, 2002).

There are six districts in the Kilimanjaro region: Rombo; Mwanga Same; Hai; Moshi Rural; and Moshi Urban. Research was carried out in the Chagga gardens of Rombo and Moshi, selected for their ecological similarities and socio-economic differences. Rombo is located in the east of the Kilimanjaro region, covering 1,442km² with a population of 417,602; and people/km² of 290. The population growth rate is 1.6% while the average household size is 5.6 people. Moshi Rural land area covers 1,713km² and has a population of 504,287 giving it a slightly higher population density of 294 people/km² . The population growth rate is also slightly higher at 1.9% but the average household size is lower at 5.4 people (NBS, 2002).

Although the Uhuru peak is located in the Rombo district, the most popular route to the top starts in Marangu, Moshi Rural district. The sizeable amount of income generated by tourism is mainly concentrated in the Moshi Rural district. This is immediately noticeable, firstly by the better physical infrastructure, and secondly by higher social infrastructure in Moshi Rural. Table 1 demonstrates the comparative levels of infrastructure in Rombo and Moshi Rural. Though there are significant differences, the table does not indicate levels of access to these services throughout both districts. Moshi Rural and Rombo districts have ecological similarities.

There is a national park boundary, largely marked by plantation forests, which starts at 1,800m and extends upwards. This provides a barrier against further population movement up the mountain and is therefore the starting point of the Chagga gardens. The Chagga gardens go down through two distinct highlands and intermediate areas before the lowlands are reached. The highlands are between altitudes of 1,800 to 1,000m, characterized by volcanic soils rich in magnesium and calcium with a wet climate but relatively mild temperature. Traveling down through the gardens there is a noticeable change in morphology, soil structure, garden size, level of precipitation and temperature. The changing bio-physical environment is summarized in Table 2.

The highland gardens are traditionally intercropped with trees, bananas, and coffee. They are small in size but rich in diversity. Potatoes, fruit, beans and cassava are the dominant ground crops, and zero-grazing of cattle, goats and sheep is practiced and free-range chickens are kept. The intermediate zone is similar in agricultural produce to the highlands but with increased plantations of maize, bean and sunflower. Soil fertility becomes more varied, and the slopes become gentler. The lowlands sector is typified by a significantly lower amount of rainfall. There is a significant decrease in banana trees and a larger variety of drought resistant crops such as sorghum and finger millet. Stall fed animals are less common but there is range fed livestock.

The region has a bimodal rainfall pattern with the short rains between October and December and the long rains between March and May. Precipitation levels are differentiated by altitude, aspect and exposure on the mountain. Total annual precipitation depends on the success of the short rains and the onset, intensity and duration of the long rains.

Climate Change and Variability in the Chagga Gardens

The reason that the deglaciation of Kilimanjaro is not addressed is because there are competing explanations. Some argue that it is increased temperatures due to climate change, whereas others blame local deforestation which has decreased the moisture retention potential of the mountain. Though it is not clear whether the deglaciation will impact the overall water budget of Kilimanjaro, it may affect the number of tourists visiting the area.

Climate change projections for the Kilimanjaro region indicate a 25 to 60% increase in short rain precipitation and an increase of 20 to 45% precipitation of the long rains (Mwandosaya et al 1998). Over the past thirty years, the Kilimanjaro region has experienced a general increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation levels (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

It is not just mean changes in climatic systems, which will occur, but also increased variability in temperature and precipitation levels. The Kilimanjaro region has always contended with variability. Variability underlies the complex agroforestry system of the Chagga gardens where different tree crop combinations have different responses to climate stimuli. Off-farm sources of income, an echo of the Chagga trading system, serve to counteract variability.

Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the amount of annual variability connected to the long and short rainy seasons. Figure 5 shows the decadal running mean against variation. It shows that, along with a decrease in annual precipitation levels, there has been an increase in the variability. More variation with lower precipitation levels could increase vulnerability as farmers may have less water available for crop cultivation.

The Kilimanjaro region faces significant risks from climate change, with a rise in mean temperature, and uncertain changes in precipitation levels. The changes are predicted to have both positive and negative effects on agriculture. Coffee and cotton production could be expanded whereas maize production could see a marked decrease. Adaptation should not only guard against adverse impacts but harness the potential benefits of climate change. Adaptation and coping mechanisms should not be considered in isolation of exogenous and endogenous pressures (Agrawala et al, 2003; Mwandosaya 1998).

Exogenous and Endogenous Pressures

Exogenous and endogenous pressures represent processes that affect vulnerability, although the distinction between the pressures are not fixed as they can operate at different geographic levels (Adger, 2004).

• Exogenous

The dominant exogenous factor is the marked decrease in world coffee real prices over the past 30 years. The boom in coffee production from the beginning to mid 20th century allowed for the investment in infrastructure and education in the region. The decline in coffee prices, market liberalization policies, removal of subsidies for inputs and the weakening of the coffee marketing boards have made it increasingly unprofitable to cultivate coffee. This has resulted in the abandonment of coffee and increased diversification into other subsistence food crops such as maize, potatoes and beans.

Another exogenous pressure is government policy. The national park policy prevents expansion of the gardens to higher altitudes. The Chagga gardens are therefore squeezed between the national park at 1800 m and the dry savannah at around 900m (see Figure 1). Government policy also influences agricultural production, for example in the crops recommended by extension services.

• Endogenous

Endougenous pressures relate to the activities which local stakeholders have more control over. One of the main pressures is population growth, although it is recognized that more people positively impact intensive land use systems as in Machakos (Tiffen et al 1994). Until recently in the Kilimanjaro region, labor constraints hindered cultivation. More people, however, will require more resources and the population increase is projected to continue in Kilimanjaro.

Pressures causing deforestation are complex. What is acknowledged is that deforestation adversely affects water availability to the Kilimanjaro forest system, water catchment, evapo-transpiration rates, and levels of soil erosion. Sustainable agroforestry has been practiced in the region for over a century, but the increased demand for timber has led to the acceleration of legal and illegal deforestation. The replacement of forest by lowland shrub has already impacted the hydrological balance of the area. The intensification of fire risk is associated with deforestation, along with increased temperature and decreased precipitation. (Agrawalia 2003)

In the past half century there has been a change in the diet of the Chagga. They have changed from a plantain based diet to maize as the staple food. The change can be attributed to many endogenous and exogenous factors, including the expansion of the maize market.

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