AMCEN zero order draft

• 1 1. Introduction
• 2 2. Vulnerability and impacts of climate change in Africa
• 3 3. Adaptation processes and capacity
• 4 4. Urgent actions
• 5 5. Conclusions
• 6 References
• 7 Annex
• 8 Contributions at the 12th. Session of AMCEN

1. Introduction

Lead author: Moliehi Shale

1.1. Purpose

1.2. Process

1.3. Contents

Notes: AMCEN not new work, rapid collation of key material

Acknowledgements: UNEP-SEI Collaborating Programme

Authors: Moliehi Shale, Anna Taylor, Tom Downing, Jian Liu

2. Vulnerability and impacts of climate change in Africa

Lead authors: Tony Nyong, Balgis Elasha Osman

2.1. Summary from IPCC AR4 and recent assessments

The final AIACC report (AIACC 2007) has several key messages synthesised from the projects undertaken 2001-2007:

Lessons on Vulnerability

• Climate variability and change is a danger NOW, not just in the distant future.
• Climate change does not act in isolation, and it's impacts will be most severe where it interacts with other existing stresses.
• Restoring and improving natural systems can reduce vulnerability. The danger from climate change is greatest where natural systems are degrades and human systems are failing.
• A variety of interacting stresses mean that coastal zones and small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
• Changing patterns of precipitation will make water scarcity and flood risks two of the major issues in Africa.
• Climate change is likely to exascerbate land degradation, and thus further increase vulnerability to change.
• Rural livelihoods and food security will be affected by climate change, but vulnerability to changes is context specific, so similar climatic stimulii can cause very different outcomes.

Lessons on Adaptation

• Adaptation to climate variability change has always occurred, but variabilty and extremes occur which are outside the coping range of the system, causing and 'adaptation defecit'
• Adapt Now! There is an adaptation defecit, so adapting now will bring immediate benefits.
• Climate change is likely to push variations and extremes further outside the range within which systems can adapt, and increase the adaptation defecit.
• People want to adapt, the issue is removing the obstacles that prevent them from adapting, for example poverty, lack of information, poor governance.
• Adaptation needs to be integrated with development.
• There is a need to strengthen institutions in Africa in order to enable adaptation.
• Increasing awareness and access to information is an important first step in increasing the capacity to adapt.
• Effective adaptation requires community involvement in the process.
• Natural resources must be managed, protected and rehabilitated to support adaptation.
• There is a need for increased financial assistance to those undertaking adaptation.

Whilst these are some general lessons drawn from the AIACC projects, effective adaptation must be place specific, and will be influenced by the local context.

UNFCCC Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries (UNFCCC 2007)

• Rainfed agriculture will be particularly affected
• Water scarcity will be a major issue and could lead to trans-boundary conflicts.
• Climate Change will introduce disease vectors into new areas. The impact of these new diseases will vary considerably depending on the local context.
• It is important to link adaptation with integrated poverty reduction strategies.
• The most effective adaptation strategies will be those whichb address a range of different stresses.
• Climate Change will affect the attainment of the Millenium Development Goals; development and adaptation must work together.

IPCC Africa Chapter (IPCC 2007)

• Climate Change in Africa does not act in isolation, but is compounded by other stresses such as poverty, lack of access to market, environmental degradation and conflict.
• People have always adapted to climate variability and change, but current adaptations may not be enough to cope with future changes.
• Agricultural production and food security are likely to be severely compromised in some areas.
• There will be an increase in water stressed areas due to both climatic factors and an increase in demand for water. Even under current climatic conditions many N. African countries are expected to reach the limits of their land-based water supplies by 2025.
• Sea-level rise in Africa will increase coastal vulnerability, and this may be made worse by the negative effects of cliamte change on natural coastal protection such as coral reefs and mangroves.

2.2. Monitoring climate and environmental change

• There is a need for more and better quality data in Africa, both climatic and socio-economic. Capacity to collect and analyse this data also needs to be built. (UNFCCC 2007)
• One of the functions of the Climate Information for Development in Africa (ClimDev Africa) programme is to support the improvement of data quality, quantity and avaiability, analytical products for climate risk amangement in sensitive sectors, and monitoring climate variability and change with strengthended observation networks and service centres. (AUC & ECA report, March 2008)

2.3. Detection of climate change impacts in Africa (including explicit built environment component)

Agriculture

• Magnitude of expected impacts on agriculture varies dramatically depending on which climate and crop models are used, however a negative impact on production is expected in most areas (Challinor et al. 2007).
• The extent of negative impacts on agriculture will be moderated by adaptation (Challinor et al. 2007).
• African farmers are innovative and have always adapted to changes in climate. Key to their ability to adapt to future climate change is access to relevant knowledge and information, and an enabling macro-economic environment (Challinor et al. 2007)

• There will be an expansion in areas where the length of growing period is less than 120 days. (Fischer et al. 2002)
• There will be a reduction in suitable agricultural land in Africa, with results particularly robust for southern Africa.
• African countries may become more dependent on food imports. (Fischer et al. 2002)

E. Africa (WWF 2006)

• Warmer Sea-surface temperatures are expected to lead to increased drought.
• Crops varieties that require a long growing season will struggle.
• Warm, rainy days are correlated with outbreaks of Malaria, and are expected to increase with climate change, causing more frequent outbreaks, and outbreaks in areas which were previously Malaria free.
• El Nino events are correlated with floods and outbreaks of rift valley fever, so an increase in these events could have a negative effect on the region.

Human settlements

• Sea level rise is liekly to force large numbers of coastal residents to migrate and destroy important infrastructure. Roughly a quarter of Africa's population lives within a 100km of the coast, including most of Africa's largest cities such as Cairo, Lagos and Kinshasa. (AUC & ECA report, March 2008)

Forced migration and conflict

2.4. Synergies with desertification and land degradation

Statement made by AfDB representative to the UN Convention to Combat Dessertification Sept 2007 [1]

2.5. Synergies with biodiversity and forests (CBD 2007a,b)

The loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services can have a devastating effect for the poor and most marginalised, and decreases the options and ability of communities and human-ecological systems to adapt to change.

Good management of ecosystems and biodiversity, for example through reducing the impact of non-climatic stresses such as land clearance and pollution, can increase the resilience of the ecosystem to climate change. More resilient ecosystems also increase the ability of human systems to adapt to changes in climate. Conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services is an important aspect of adaptation.

The needs of human systems and of ecological systems must be balanced so that providing for the human system in the short-term does not degrade the surrounding ecosystem and increase vulnerability to future change.

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) recognises the need to rapidly develop tools for the implementation of conservation activities that contribute to climate change adaptation, and identify mutually supportive activities between the different Rio conventions. The Ramsar Convention on wetlands calls upon Parties to build reslience of wetlands to climate change through their restoration and protection.

Healthy ecosystems are a key in maintaining human health. Climate Change may degrade these ecosystems and threaten many endemic plants used in traditional medecine. Adaptation measures to protect and strengthen ecosystems would help to reduce the impact of climate change on human health.

2.6. Humanitarian crises and displaced populations

• Sea level rise is liekly to force large numbers of coastal residents to migrate and destroy important infrastructure. Roughly a quarter of Africa's population lives within a 100km of the coast, including most of Africa's largest cities such as Cairo, Lagos and Kinshasa. (AUC & ECA report, March 2008)

Notes from Warner, K. et al (forthcoming) Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Migration. Natural Hazards special volume Extreme Events: Vulnerability, Environment and Society.

• Little is known about the interplay between environmental change and stresses on ecological systems, socio-economic vulnerability and potential outcomes in terms of displaced populations.

• Environmentally induced migration and/or conflict is the result of a poorly understood and complex interplay between environmental, political, social and economic processes. This interaction of multiple stressors can create tipping points which lead to 'spikes' in migration as socio-ecological thresholds are crossed. People are differentially vulnerable to environmental change due to these social and economic factors, which can act to buffer environmental change or make it's effects worse.

• The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment concluded that 15 of 24 ecosystem services reviewed were degraded or being used unsustainably, and climate change is likely to exacerbate degradation in many cases. This may increase the environmental push factor influencing migration, and move the system nearer to a threshold where migration occurs.

• When coping mechanisms are overwhelmed by extended periods of resource scarcity and loss of ecosystem services this can be a trigger to the movement of people.

• It appears that at present environmental degradation is, in most cases, a contributing factor to migration, but is outweighed by economic and social factors. Environmental change may increase the weight of the environmental push factor in migration.

• Populations in semi-arid lands and coastal zones are thought to be particularly vulnerable to environmentally induced migration as a result of the interaction of climate change with other socio-economic stresses.

• It must be recognised that migration is strategy to cope with severe environmental degradation, and has always been a potential coping strategy throughout history. The scale of future environmentally induced migration could be extremely large, and unprecedented.

• Migration could potentially help adaptation through remittances.

• There should be a focus on environmental and social monitoring programmes to ascertain when thresholds are about to be exceeded and people will need to migrate. These monitoring systems could allow relocation of people to occur in a planned way.

Sudan (UNEP 2007)

• Links exist between environmental degradation, climate change and conflict in Sudan. Environmental issues have contributed to the conflict.
• Decreased precipitation in the region has shifted the limit of the desert southwards, which has driven pastoralists further south and caused conflict over resources with sedentary agricultural tribes.
• The internal displacement caused by the conflict has caused further environmental, in particular around large camps for internal refugees
• Changing climate can reduce the resource base of an area, or change the distribution of resources, and create conflict over dwindling resources.

Water and conflict in West Africa

• There is no empirical link that has been found between climate change and conflict in the area, but it can exascerbate tensions and could trigger new conflict over resources. (Brown and Crawford 2008)
• Adaptation must address issues of natural resource availability to avoid tensions over issues such as water availability, food security and competition between agriculturalists and pastoralists leading to conflict. (Brown and Crawford 2008)
• The high level of interdependence on water resources in W. Africa creates the potential for conflict over resources. (Niasse 2005)
• Growing demand and reduced precipitation in the region has led to a multitude of plans for water storage and diversion, and could increase tension on transboundary rivers. (Niasse 2005)
• There is a need for comprehensive transboundary management plans to ensure fair distribution of a changing resource and avoid tensions which could exascerbate current problems and lead to conflict. (Niasse 2005)

2.7. Costing climate impacts

Notes from presentation by Ian Noble [2]

The World Bank approves over 400 projects per year, which equates to roughly USD 21 billion per year in loans and grants. Of these projects, about 40% include climate senstitive components, which translates into USD 4 billion of the portfolio being at risk. Only 2% of project design document explicitly mention climate variability or change.

Box: Confidence in climate change projections/scenarios in Africa: copy general conclusion from IPCC and ask Laban Ogallo, Amadou Gaye, Bruce Hewitson and Mark Tadross to comment/ammend

Box: Vulnerability: differential exposure but impossible to construct single index (cite UNEP monograph), everone is vulnerable to some aspect of climate change in Africa; note Africa as primarily LDC, which are recognised as urgent priority

Notes: look at LTER network (Terry something from Lancaster); compile climate disaster data for Africa from CRED (should be already done, including time series to show any increases in frequency or impacts)

Authors: Rashid Hassan (costs), Anna Taylor, Bruce Hewitson, Mark Tadross, Laban Ogallo, John Christiansen, Laban Ogallo, Guy Midgeley (sp?), Mo Hamza, Youba Sokona, Dorothy Amwata, Adriaan Tas (biodiversity and forests?), Fernanda Zermoglio, Boubacar Dembele

3. Adaptation processes and capacity

Lead authors: Youba Sokona, Tom Downing (or someone else???)

3.1. Types of adaptation projects proposed by NAPAs

At the 2001 Marrakech Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) participants agreed that least developed countries should prepare documents ― National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) ― that outline the most urgent actions required to meet the country's adaptation needs.

NAPAs are intended to provide least developed countries with a communication tool to highlight their most urgent adaptation needs and to identify priority projects to address these needs.

In a recent policy brief Osman-Elasha and Downing (2007) detail over 100 NAPA projects submitted to the UNFCCC by late 2006. The project activities include raising awareness of climate change, strengthening climate monitoring systems, building capacity for early warning systems, and considering climate change in development planning.

Two of the key issues to come out of the interviews include the pressing timescale of the issues that the NAPAs are addressing, and the importance of identifying achievable priority projects.

Various methodologies for developing adaptation projects are outlined, including developing a multidisciplinary task team and rapid participatory appraisal. Prioritizing adaptation activities via screening and ranking is also discussed.

The results suggest that NAPAs have helped to put climate change on the development agenda. But NAPAs are not an end in themselves; they must be complemented by projects that target the most vulnerable sectors of a country.

Some nine countries had submitted their NAPA reports to the UNFCCC website as of September 2006 (Table 3), proposing a total of 101 projects. These projects were categorised according to the following types and scale: Type of project 1. Awareness: designed to raise general awareness of climate change, often working with stakeholders.

2. Information and research: going beyond awareness to develop the research base for taking action, including monitoring systems, working with climate scenarios and baseline vulnerability assessments.

3.Capacity building and early warning systems: a more organised approach to information, linking specifically to end users and specific actions.

4. Mainstreaming and planning:working with specific planning processes, such as five-year development plans, to include climate risk management.

5.Investment: direct actions involving changing resource management in specific households or regions.

6. Institutional reform and regulation: changing policies, resource management institutions and barriers to wider action on climate adaptation, often promoting more efficient use of resources.

7. Financial and insurance: approaches involving spreading the risk through financial mechanisms or insurance. 8. Scale of project

9. Targeting specific vulnerable groups, for example poor farmers in semi-arid regions. 10. Community-based adaptation, working with a broad spectrum of households at the community level, whether identified through livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers) or specific regions. 11. Sector-wide developments, often housed in the relevant ministry (e.g.,Ministry of Agriculture) and working across levels from livelihoods to sectoral infrastructure and development planning. 12. Regional projects cover more than one sector, often based on community development approaches but including some regional planning and infrastructure. 13. National level, often associated with projects oriented toward policy and planning across a number of sectors.

Obviously, some projects have more than one type of activity and work at various scales, particularly for larger projects. In such cases, the tendency was to rate the project in the 'higher' relevant category. For instance a project with direct investment actions would be rated as investment, even if it included substantial awareness and research components (as would be likely). This categorisation is intended only as a first-cut at the kinds of projects proposed in the LDC portfolio and not an evaluation of each project per se.

3.2. Organisational competence and African institutional development

Notes from IIED report on Adaptation in Africa, 2007:

Adaptation needs to be addressed at several levels to ensure coherence with broader policy frameworks. This will require integrating adaptation into:

National development plans and priorities; -Strategies to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); -Other Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) such as the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD); Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Ramsar Convention -PRSPs and Country Policy Frameworks. -Investment projects to ensure they are “climate friendly” and resilient to the risks posed by climate change.

Ways to achieve such integration include -National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) to bring knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation into national planning processes. -Setting-up inter-ministerial groups to integrate adaptation strategies across all government departments. -Lesson-learning from neighbouring countries facing similar challenges.

In 2001, UNFCCC agreed that all LDCs would receive support to identify their most urgent adaptation needs through the preparation of NAPAs, and many of these have now been prepared. However, the NAPA process is criticised by some as being inadequately financed, biased towards small scale projects, and with weak links into broader human development goals. The costs of adaptation are also considered greatly under-estimated (UNDP 2007). Given the primacy of the Poverty Reduction Strategy in government planning and budget allocation, adaptation to climate change clearly needs to be integrated firmly within a new cycle of PRSPs. Whilst NAPA documents identify a list of priority projects, they do not contain full project proposals which would allow access to funding from the GEF or other agencies. This is problematic given the priority for LDCs now to address the urgent needs identified in the NAPAs.

It is widely agreed that investment in disaster-preparedness produces high returns, with $1 in costs invested set against $7 in reduced damage. Any delay in implementation will increase vulnerability or lead to significant cost increases at a later stage. Agreement on a timeframe for implementation is needed as is additional technical and financial assistance, if the momentum created by the NAPA process is to be maintained (Jallow and Downing, 2007, in Downing 2007). Improved disaster early warning systems should also reduce vulnerability, as was seen with the timely response to the floods in Mozambique in early 2007 and 2008. Building on experience from 2000, the government has worked with donors, undertaken flood analysis, set up a new network of meteorological stations, established radio-based early warning systems and ensured mass evacuation of people from those areas most at risk.

Incorporating adaptation into national policies and practices also goes hand in hand with efforts to mainstream the environment into budget plans, at national and local levels. Town councils, district assemblies and rural communes are increasingly important in many African countries, given the process of decentralisation underway for some years. Planning and budgeting that starts at the community level should ensure that their priorities are captured in the councils’ annual plans and budgets.

...

The African Development Bank (AfDB), as highlighted in a recent report of the High Level Panel entitled 'Investing in Africa's Future: The ADB in the 21st Century' (2007), sees it's role as the "motor" to drive economic integration across the continent, necessary for achieving sustained and shared growth. Four areas of focus on which the AfDB will be concentrating it's resources are investing in infrastructure, building capable states, promoting the private sector and developing skills. In the report mention is made to addressing the challenges associated with climate change, specifically with reference to infrastrucutral development: "[The AfDB should help Africa build infrastructure to effectively mitigate and adapt to climate change through clean energies (hydro and wind power), all-weather transport, and irrigation projects". The AfDB is mandated by the AU to implement the infrastructure component of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). The Bank is currently sourcing support for developing a climate risk management strategy to provide the framework for these undertakings.

...

At the Tenth African Union Summit, held earlier this year, the Executive Council expressed concern regarding the seriousness of climate change, highlighting the importance of tackling the challenges of climate change in the international arena and the particular threat it poses for Africa. The Council welcomed the Tunis Declaration and Action Plan on International Solidarity against Climate Change in Africa and the Mediterranean region, deciding that the Declaration be referred to AMCEN and AMCOST for further discussion (ARC, 2008) and requesting that AMCEN make appropriate recommendations to the Council (AU, 2008).

The Tunis Declaration came out of the "International Solidarity Conference on Climate Change Strategies for African and Mediterranean Regions", held in Tunis, Tunisia, on 18-20 November 2007 and attended by governments, multi/bilateral organizations, corporates, NGOs and academics. The Declaration highlights the gravity of the climate change problem and the urgent need to establish adaptation mechanisms and develop attenuation and clean development techniques in Africa. It states that climate adaptation should be integrated within sustainable development policies, strategies and plans with a view to achieving sustainable economic growth and eradicating poverty (MDGs); and synergies with efforts to combat other environmental problems (e.g. desertification, sand encroachment and biodiversity degradation) should be optimized. Recognising Africa’s growth and development priorities and limited capacity of adaptation, parties to the declaration agree to, among other things, include adaptation in development strategies and integrate adaptation measures into activities at all levels and across sectors, including developing awareness, capacity and sharing information; and in so doing request support from the international community in terms of financing, research and guidelines.

The Tunis Action Plan lays out a number of priority actions, including:

• Assistance for the elaboration and implementation of national adaptation plans
• Integration of Climate Change adaptation in development strategies and plans
• Strengthening participation by stakeholders (including local capacity building, gender sensitivity, promoting good governance)
• Climate adaptation in agriculture and the management of natural ecosystems (including promoting suitable practices, raising awareness among actors, preparing for harmful natural phenomena and disasters, strengthening genetic resources conservation, strengthening synergies with adaptation plans in other fields, making funding sources easier to access)
• Adaptation to climate change for better management of water resources
• Adaptation to climate change as regards infrastructure (including enhance the countries’ ability to assess infrastructural vulnerability, integrate climate considerations into planning and designing, promote technology transfer to combat coastal erosion)
• Preparedness for health impacts and natural disasters

In order to implement these actions it is suggested that adjustments are needed to further adapt and strengthen current funding systems and devices, including international carbon deals, alternative mitigation funding such as taxes on GHG emissions, easier access to funding from GEF and other donors, and an increase in financial aid flows to Africa.

3.3. International finance

Additional finance for adaptation must not come out of existing aid commitments. Development is essential to enable poor people to adapt successfully, but it is still hugely under-funded: donors must live up to the commitment of providing 0.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in order to eradicate poverty. Adaptation finance cannot be rebranded or diverted from aid commitments, and must be reported systematically and transparently. In line with the ‘polluter pays’ principle, it is owed not as aid from rich country to poor country, but as compensatory finance from high-emissions countries to those most vulnerable to the impacts. There are many innovative mechanisms for raising this finance independently from aid, which deserve full consideration (OXFAM, 2007). The table below shows the current finance available through the UNFCCC multi-lateral funds.

3.4. Technology and innovation

3.5. Cost of climate change adaptation in Africa

More robust estimates of the economics of adaptation are urgently needed. This calls for an initiative equivalent to the British government’s ‘Stern Review’ on the economics of stopping climate change, but one focused on examining the relationship of development to adaptation, providing examples of best practice in project design and finance, and producing stronger estimates of the costs and benefits of adaptation. This would give developing countries a firmer basis for integrating adaptation into development plans and budgets, and would give high-income, high-emissions countries a clearer estimate of the finance that they are capable of – and responsible for – providing.

A number of projects are underway to estimate the global cost of adaptation but little is available thus far. That which is available does not give estimates at the regional or continental scale, although some suggest figures by sector, and all very clearly lay out the challenges in formulating estimates and the caveats associated with them.

The UNFCCC secretariat launched a project in 2007 to review and analyze investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change, with particular focus on developing countries' needs. The main findings for adadptation presented in a large technical background paper suggest that the additional investment and financial flows in 2030 for developing countries to adapt to climate change in the sectors of agricultrue, forestry, fisheries, water supply, human health, coastal zone and infrastructure is in the region of USD 28 to 67 billion.

Globally, investment and financial flows needed for adaptation are likely to be tens of billions of dollars per year within several decades, and it could even be more than USD 100 billion per year, but this is dependant on a number of factors, including the level of emissions (UNFCCC, 2007).

A study by Oxfam last year estimated the scale of costs for developing countries of adapting to climate change will be at least $50bn each year, well above the World Bank’s widely cited estimate of $10–40bn annually, and this is likely to be far higher if greenhouse-gas emissions are not cut rapidly (Oxfam, 2007).

Recognising the lack and crude nature of current estimates of the cost of climate adaptation the World Bank and the governments of the Netherlands and UK have partnered to undertake a study on the economics of clmiate change, which was launched at COP 13 and is currently underway. The team is still in the phase of agreeing on a methodology for the study.

3.6. Adaptation targeting and synergies with the MDGs

Climate change will make it harder to realise the MDGs because it threatens the prospect of reaching every one of the goals (see below). Adapting to climate change will add significantly to the cost of meeting the MDGs and other development goals. As the Stern Review concurs, ‘this makes it still more important for developed countries to honour both their existing commitments to increase aid sharply and help the world’s poorest countries adapt to climate change’.

MDG 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Climate change is predicted to:

• Degrade the forests, fish, pastures, and crop land that many poor families depend on for their food and living.

• Damage poor people’s homes, water supply, and health, which will undermine their ability to earn a living.

• Exacerbate social tensions over resource use, which can lead to conflict, destabilising livelihoods and forcing communities to migrate.

MDG 2. Achieve universal primary education

Climate change could undermine children’s ability to attend school.

• More children (especially girls) are likely to be taken out of school to help fetch water, care for ill relatives, or help earn an income.

• Malnourishment and illness among children could reduce their school attendance, and impair their learning when they are in class.

• Floods and hurricanes destroy school buildings, and force migration.

MDG 3. Promote gender equity and empower women

Climate change is expected to exacerbate current gender inequalities.

• Women tend to depend more on the natural environment for their livelihoods than men do, and so are more vulnerable than men are to its variability and change.

• Women and girls are typically the ones to fetch water, fodder, firewood, and often food. In times of climate stress, they must cope with fewer resources and a greater workload.

• Female-headed households with few assets are affected particularly severely by climate-related disasters.

MDG 4, 5, 6. Reduce child mortality, improve maternal health, and combat major diseases

Climate change will lead to more deaths and illness due to heat-waves, floods, droughts, and hurricanes.

• It may increase the prevalence of diseases spread by mosquitoes (such as malaria and dengue fever) or of those spread in water (such as cholera and dysentery). Children and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to these diseases.

• It is expected to reduce the quality and quantity of drinking water, and exacerbate malnutrition among children, particularly in sub- Saharan Africa.

MDG 7. Ensure environmental sustainability

Climate change will alter the quality and productivity of natural resources and ecosystems, some of which may be irreversibly damaged. These changes will also reduce biological diversity and compound existing environmental degradation.

MDG 8. Develop a global partnership

Climate change is a global challenge, and responding to it requires global co-operation, especially to enable developing countries to tackle poverty and inequality. It heightens the need for donors to honour their ODA commitments, and to provide additional resources for adaptation

(taken from Adapting to climate change. What’s needed in poor countries, and who should pay. Oxfam Briefing Paper, May 2007)

3.7. Adaptation in the post-2012 international regime

The UN Economic Commission for Africa and the AU Commission (AU Conference of Minsters of Economy and Finance) met in Late March, early April of this year to discuss African perspectives for a post-2012 climate agreement.

The key messages from the report produced in preparation of this meeting include (ECA & AUC, 2008):

• climate change is likely to undermine the ability of African countries to meet the targets set by the MDGs
• Africa's contribution to the global increase in CO2 levels has been very small, approximately 3.8% of total global greenhouse gas emissions (although African emission levels are rising with growth in the transport sector and high levels of deforestation), but that Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because most African economies remain heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors and there is inadequate ability to respond to the effects of climate change.
• there is a great need for regional responses e.g. the partnership between the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) on the Climate Information for Development in Africa (ClimDev Africa) programme
• African countries must be well prepared to engage in the second review of the Kyoto Protocol and ensure that the regions main issues of concern are well articulated and reflected in the post-2012 negotiations and conclusions. These concerns includes: the development adgenda; funding and capacity building for the implementation of the Convention and Protocol; the continuity and equity of the flexible mechanisms (especially CDM); technology development and transfer; and commitments under the Protocol (especially capping of emissions by developed countries).
• a regional consultative mechanism should be instituted as part of the preparatory process for the review, which would help strengthen Africa's negotiating position and ensure concensus on African positions
• ECA has committed to establishing a deicated African Climate Policy Centre

Box: Adaptation as a socio-institutional process (Anna from wiki)

Notes: The NAPA report with Balgis has a typology of adaptation types, just to show range of possible responses, pull from Rockefeller report for organisations,

Authors: Richard Klein (finance), Hubert Meena (costing?), Anna Taylor, Jean-Philippe Thomas, Moussa (ENDA?), Fatima Denton?, we need more people here! Any ideas?

4. Urgent actions

Lead author: Balgis Osman

4.1. Climate change and disaster risk reduction

4.2. National policy and programmes

Text from IIED report on Adaptation in Africa, 2007:

Adaptation needs to be addressed at several levels to ensure coherence with broader policy frameworks. This will require integrating adaptation into:

National development plans and priorities; -Strategies to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); -Other Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) such as the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD); Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Ramsar Convention -PRSPs and Country Policy Frameworks. -Investment projects to ensure they are “climate friendly” and resilient to the risks posed by climate change.

Ways to achieve such integration include -National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) to bring knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation into national planning processes. -Setting-up inter-ministerial groups to integrate adaptation strategies across all government departments. -Lesson-learning from neighbouring countries facing similar challenges.

It is widely agreed that investment in disaster-preparedness produces high returns, with $1 in costs invested set against $7 in reduced damage. Any delay in implementation will increase vulnerability or lead to significant cost increases at a later stage. Agreement on a timeframe for implementation is needed as is additional technical and financial assistance, if the momentum created by the NAPA process is to be maintained (Jallow and Downing, 2007, in Downing 2007). Improved disaster early warning systems should also reduce vulnerability, as was seen with the timely response to the floods in Mozambique in early 2007 and 2008. Building on experience from 2000, the government has worked with donors, undertaken flood analysis, set up a new network of meteorological stations, established radio-based early warning systems and ensured mass evacuation of people from those areas most at risk.

Incorporating adaptation into national policies and practices also goes hand in hand with efforts to mainstream the environment into budget plans, at national and local levels. Town councils, district assemblies and rural communes are increasingly important in many African countries, given the process of decentralisation underway for some years. Planning and budgeting that starts at the community level should ensure that their priorities are captured in the councils’ annual plans and budgets.

4.3. Pilot actions

4.4. Learning by doing

Text from OXFAM (2007)... suggest that a far more intensive, action-learning phase of adaptation is needed to promote learning-by-doing. There is still much for the international community to define and clarify about how best to manage and disburse funds for adaptation, and how best to build climate resilience in developing countries. But vulnerable communities across the world cannot be expected to wait until each and every question has been resolved, before they start getting the support needed. A far more intensive, action-learning phase – focused on testing, building up organisational capacity, and scaling up successful demonstration projects – would produce valuable learning-by-doing. They go on to suggest that beginning in this initial three-to-five year phase, international adaptation funds should be made available to diverse actors, including NGOs because they can often reach and support vulnerable communities most effectively. The experience and expertise built up from this phase should be systematically documented and shared to promote learning. In this way, learning from practical experience will contribute to unresolved debates on eligibility and governance of funds, and will also inform best practice on adapting to climate change.

Box: Update on NAPA status in Africa: Ask Boni Biagini at GEF/World Bank to update table from Tiempo, Annie Roncerel may be able to help

Authors: ECBI contact in Mauritius? who else?

5. Conclusions

Lead authors: Youba Sokona and Tom Downing

Notes: Simple wrap up

References

UN Economic Commission for Africa and African Union Commission. (2008) Climate Change: African Perspectives for a Post-2012 Agreement. First Joint Anuual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, March 2008, [3]

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High Level Panel for the African Development Bank (2007), Investing in Africa's Future: The ADB in the 21st Century. [4]

UNFCCC (2007) Investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to Climate Change. Background paper for the Fourth workshop under the Dialogue [5]

African Regional Coverage (2008) ARC Briefing Note on the Outcomes of the Tenth African Union Summit. IISD Reporting Services, ARC Breifing Note Series, Vol. 7, Number 3, 14 February 2008 [6]

African Union (2008) EX.CL/DEC.378 – 414 (XII) and EX.CL/Decl.1 (XII). Executive Council Twelfth Ordinary Council, 25 – 29 January 2008, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia [7]

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Annex

Interview with Bubu Jallow: Ask him if he wants to update this from the Tiempo back page last year

Previous statements from AU on climate change

Anything else?

Contributions at the 12th. Session of AMCEN

The draft paper for the Expert group meeting on Climate Change Adaptation in Africa [19] presented at the AMCEN meeting is currently in draft and African experts and International advisers are encouraged to comment and to become lead and contributing authors for the final version.

The other contribution from the SEI and OSS was a discussion paper for the ministerial session titled: Building climate resilience in Africa: Turning political commitment into action [20]